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首页» 过刊浏览» 2020» Vol.5» Issue(2) 254-268     DOI : 10.3969/j.issn.2096-1693.2020.02.022
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安全思维和事故模型研究分析与展望
伍星光,侯磊,刘芳媛,吴守志,伍壮
中国石油大学(北京)油气管道输送安全国家工程实验室/石油工程教育部重点实验室,北京 102249
The analysis and prospects of safety thinking and accident models
WU Xingguang, HOU Lei, LIU Fangyuan, WU Shouzhi, WU Zhuang
National Engineering Laboratory for Pipeline Safety/MOE Key Laboratory of Petroleum Engineering,China University of Petroleum-Beijing, Beijing 102249, China

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摘要  社会技术系统的日益复杂不仅滋生了更多潜在的安全问题,也促进了安全思维的不断改变。安全思维由 基于事后响应的被动式管理向基于实时监控的主动式管理转变,事故模型也从简单线性思维发展到复杂系统思 维。对事故模型功能和内涵的深刻理解有助于针对具体实际问题进行模型优选与开发。目前鲜有研究对安全思 维及其与事故模型的关系进行深入探究,缺乏对各事故模型的特点、适用性和局限性的综合分析。本文在总结 分析安全理念和思维发展历程的基础上,将事故模型划分为基于事件的因果链式模型、基于系统理论的事故模 型和基于安全屏障的事故预测模型,从模型起源、功能和适用性等方面对 3 类模型中的代表性模型进行了综合 分析,通过对比不同类别模型的优缺点和应用前景,展望了事故模型面临的挑战和未来的发展方向。
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关键词 : 社会技术系统;安全思维;事故模型;链式模型;系统理论;安全屏障
Abstract
The increasing complexity of social-technical systems has not only created more potential safety issues, but has also spurred constant changes in safety thinking. Safety thinking has changed from reactive management based on post-event response to proactive management based on real-time monitoring, while the accident models have also changed from simple linear thinking to complex system thinking. Profound understandingof the function and connotation of the accident model is helpful for model selection and development for specific practical problems. To date, little work has been done to conduct in-depth analysis of safety thinking and its relationship with accident models, and the characteristics, applicability and limitations of each accident model. In this study, on the basis of the review of the development of safety concepts and safety thinking, the accident models were divided into event-based causal chain models, models based on system theory and predictive models based on safety barriers. Representative models of the three types were comprehensively analyzed from the aspects of model origin, function, and applicability. The challenges and future development directions of the accident models were reviewed by comparative analysis of the advantages, disadvantages and application prospects of different types of models.

 

Key words: social-technical system; safety thinking; accident model; chain model; system theory; safety barrier
收稿日期: 2020-06-30     
PACS:    
基金资助:国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0802104, 2017YFC0805800) 资助
通讯作者: houleicup@126.com
引用本文:   
WU Xingguang, HOU Lei, LIU Fangyuan, WU Shouzhi, WU Zhuang. The analysis and prospects of safety thinking and accident models. Petroleum Science Bulletin, 2020, 02: 254-268.
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