Coal production capacity regulation is a complex system involving economic growth, structural optimization, high-efficiency mining, and environmental protection. Based on its driving factors, this paper forms four regulation modes representing different control orientations, establishes a system dynamics model, and predicts the regulation effects of single-factor and combined control mode. The result shows: (1) Except for the mechanization degree and recovery rate, the other nine individual production capacity control policies are all conducive to reducing coal production capacity and restraining the excessive growth of coal production capacity. (2) The effect of combined regulation mode on slowing down the growth of coal demand, regulating the excessive growth of coal production capacity and new capacity investment are obviously better than that of single policy. (3) The combined control modes have obvious differences in the suppression effect on coal production capacity: transformational development mode > technology-driven mode > structural optimization mode > efficiency improvement mode. Therefore, in the process of achieving optimal regulation of coal production capacity, attention should be paid to the preferential use of transformational development and technology-driven mode. At the same time, the comprehensive use of regulation and control methods should also be considered to improve the regulation effect and the regulation efficiency of coal production capacity.