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首页» 过刊浏览» 2021» Vol.6» Issue(2) 302-314     DOI : 10.3969/j.issn.2096-1693.2021.02.024
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中国油气行业甲烷逃逸排放核算与时空特征研究
杨梓诚 ,高俊莲 ,唐旭 ,仲冰 ,张博
1 中国矿业大学(北京)管理学院,北京 100083 2 中国石油大学(北京)经济管理学院,北京 102249
Accounting and spatial-temporal characteristics of fugitive methane emissions from the oil and natural gas industry in China
YANG Zicheng1 , GAO Junlian1 , TANG Xu2 , ZHONG Bing1 , ZHANG Bo
1 School of Management, China University of Mining & Technology-Beijing, Beijing 100083 2 School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum-Beijing, Beijing 102249

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摘要  甲烷是仅次于二氧化碳的第二大温室气体,油气开发利用的全产业链均会产生甲烷逃逸排放。在 2060 年前实现碳中和的愿景下,我国油气行业的甲烷减排需求迫切,而准确地核算与评估甲烷逃逸排放是 油气行业开展甲烷排放控制工作的前提。本文采用《IPCC2006 年国家温室气体清单指南(2019 修订版)》推 荐的排放因子,核算了 2000—2017 年我国油气行业甲烷逃逸排放,并分析了具体的时空演变特征。结果表 明,2000—2017 年我国油气行业的甲烷逃逸排放持续增长,2000 年所估算的区间范围为 703.6 Gg(低排放情 景)~970.4 Gg(高排放情景),到 2017 年增长为 1697.3~3288.3 Gg;其中石油系统的甲烷排放先增加后下降,从 2000 年的 561.9~648.0 Gg增长到 2017 年的 696.6~783.0 Gg;天然气系统的甲烷排放保持持续增长,从 2000 年 的 141.7~322.5 Gg增长到 2017 年的 1000.7~2505.3 Gg。天然气系统相比于石油系统,其甲烷逃逸排放增长更快。 从具体的排放源类别来看,在以排放更低的技术和实践为主的低排放情景,油气行业的生产环节为关键排放源, 而在排放更高的技术和实践为主的高排放情景下,天然气系统的运输环节也成为关键的排放源,表明这些排放 源具有较大的减排潜力。从空间特征来看,伴随油气资源勘探开发布局的变化,我国油气行业甲烷逃逸排放的 分布总体呈现出由东北、华北地区向西北、西南地区转移的趋势;对比现有的清单研究结果发现,由于排放源 完整性、核算方法和数据精度方面的差异,关于我国油气系统甲烷逃逸排放的估算研究仍存在较大的不确定性。 最后,从国家清单编制常态化、清单编制方法学完善、高分辨率排放源识别等方面,对促进我国油气行业甲烷 排放清单的编制提出了相应建议。
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关键词 : 甲烷排放;石油系统;天然气系统;温室气体排放;清单编制
Abstract
Methane is the second largest greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide. The emissions of methane inevitably occur along  
the entire oil & natural gas supply chains. Under the vision of being carbon neutral by 2060, China's oil & gas industry has an    
urgent need to reduce methane emissions. Accurate accounting and evaluation of fugitive methane emissions is a prerequisite for    
the oil and gas industry to carry out methane emissions control. Based on the emission factors recommended by 2019 Refinement    
to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventory, we estimate the fugitive methane emissions from China’s    
oil & natural gas systems from 2000 to 2017, identify the main features of temporal and spatial inventory changes, and compare    
the inventory data with those adopted from existing studies. The results show that methane emissions from China’s oil & natural    
gas systems increased continuously, from 703.6 Gg (low emission scenarios)~970.4 Gg (high emission scenarios) in 2000 to    
1697.3~3288.3 Gg in 2017. The methane emissions of the oil system increased from 561.9~648.0 Gg in 2000 to 696.6~783.0 Gg    
in 2017; methane emissions from the natural gas system continued to grow, from 141.7~322.5 Gg in 2000 to 1000.7~2505.3 Gg    
in 2017. The natural gas system had a much larger growth rate of fugitive methane emissions than the oil system. Considering    
most activities occurring with lower-emitting-technologies and practices, the production segment of the oil & natural gas industry    
is the key emission source. The transportation segment of the natural gas system is an important emission source under the    
condition of most activities occurring with higher-emitting-technologies and practices, suggesting large mitigation potentials in    
different fields. From the point of view of spatial characteristics, the distribution of methane emissions in China’s oil & natural    
gas industries of China shows the trend of shifting from Northeast and North China to Northwest and Southwest China, along    
with the layout change of oil & natural gas resources exploration and development. Comparing with the results of the existing    
inventory research, it is found that there is still a great uncertainty in the estimation of methane emission from oil & natural gas    
systems in China, owing to the differences on the completeness of emission sources, accounting methods and data accuracy.    
Finally, this study provides some suggestions to develop the inventories of methane emissions in China’s oil & natural gas    
industries, such as the normalization of national inventory compilation, the improvement of accounting methodology and the    
implementation of high-resolution source monitoring.  


Key words: methane emissions; oil systems; natural gas systems; greenhouse gas emissions; inventory compilation
收稿日期: 2021-06-30     
PACS:    
基金资助:国家自然科学基金基础科学中心项目(72088101 )、国家自然科学基金面上项目(71774161) 资助
通讯作者: zhangbo@cumtb.edu.cn
引用本文:   
杨梓诚, 高俊莲, 唐旭, 仲冰, 张博. 中国油气行业甲烷逃逸排放核算与时空特征研究. 石油科学通报, 2021, 02: 302-314 YANG Zicheng, GAO Junlian, TANG Xu, ZHONG Bing, ZHANG Bo. Accounting and spatial-temporal characteristics of fugitive methane emissions from the oil and natural gas industry in China. Petroleum Science Bulletin, 2021, 02: 302-314.
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