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首页» 过刊浏览» 2016» Vol. 1» Issue (2) 257-269     DOI : 10.3969/j.issn.2096-1693.2016.02.021
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天然气凝析液管道水合物堵管风险概率研究
阮超宇,史博会,宋尚飞,丁麟,柳扬,黄启玉,宫敬
中国石油大学(北京)油气管道输送安全国家工程实验室/石油工程教育部重点实验室/城市油气输配技术北京市重点实验室, 北京 102249
Study of hydrate plugging risk in gas-condensate pipelines
RUAN Chaoyu, SHI Bohui, SONG Shangfei, DING Lin, LIU Yang, HUANG Qiyu, GONG Jing
National Engineering Laboratory for Pipeline Safety/MOE Key Laboratory of Petroleum Engineering/Beijing Key Laboratory of Urban Oil and Gas Distribution Technology, China University of Petroleum-Beijing, Beijing 102249, China

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摘要  水合物的形成与堵塞问题是深海油气资源开发的主要风险之一,准确预测水合物堵管的概率是保障油气管线流动安全的基础。本文将基于可靠性的极限状态方法,引入水合物堵塞风险计算中,建立了基于水合物生成及凝析液流动特性的数学模型。综合考虑管道运行参数的不确定性,运用LHS和POD方法对堵塞风险的极限状态方程进行求解,实现了以概率形式定量描述天然气凝析液管道中水合物堵塞的风险,能够比较准确预测水合物堵管时间和堵管位置,为天然气凝析液管道防堵提供理论支持。
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关键词 : 水合物; 壳模型; 堵管概率; 可靠性; LHS和POD算法
Abstract

  Hydrate formation and plugging are the main risks in the process of deep sea oil production. The prediction of hydrate plugging probability is the foundation of the safe operation of gas-condensate pipelines. In this paper, by introducing a limit state method of reliability to hydrate plugging risk calculation, we established a mathematical model based on hydrate formation and flow properties. We comprehensively considered the uncertainty of pipeline operation parameters and we used Latin Hypercube Sampling(LHS) and Proper Orthogonal Decomposition(POD) methods to solve the limit state equation of plugging risk. Probability analysis of hydrate plugging in gas-condensate pipelines has been realized.

Key words: hydrate ; growth shell model ; plugging probability ; reliability ; LHS and POD
收稿日期: 2018-05-30     
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阮超宇,史博会,宋尚飞,丁麟,柳扬,黄启玉,宫敬. 天然气凝析液管道水合物堵管风险概率研究[J]. 石油科学通报, 2016, 1(2): 257-269. RUAN Chaoyu, SHI Bohui, SONG Shangfei, DING Lin, LIU Yang, HUANG Qiyu, GONG Jing. Study of hydrate plugging risk in gas-condensate pipelines. 石油科学通报, 2016, 1(2): 257-269.
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