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首页» 过刊浏览» 2016» Vol. 1» Issue (3) 484-492     DOI : 10.3969/j.issn.2096-1693.2016.03.045
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管道环焊缝可靠性的参数统计分布研究
任伟,帅健
中国石油大学(北京),北京 102249
Research into the statistical distribution of reliability parameters for girth welds on pipelines REN Wei, SHUAI Jian
REN Wei, SHUAI Jian
China University of Petroleum-Beijing, Beijing 102200, China

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摘要  在管线实际运营过程中,影响管线安全的不确定因素很多,如果不能很好地考虑这些不确性因素,可靠性评定结果会产生较大偏差。本文首先对L415、L485、L555管道环焊缝的环焊缝拉伸强度、环焊缝冲击功和环焊缝断裂韧性等材料性能参数进行统计分析。采用常用的正态分布、对数正态分布、指数分布、Gumbel分布和Weibull二参数分布来描述这些参数的分布类型,并对相应的分布类型进行参数估计。其次,在给定的显著水平下,分别利用K-S检验和χ2检验对分布进行非参数检验。最后,根据检验结果,给出参数的最佳分布类型,这对提高管道环焊缝可靠性分析的准确性有重要作用。
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关键词 : 环焊缝; 可靠性; 参数估计; 非参数检验
Abstract

  During the actual operation of the pipelines, there are many uncertain factors affecting pipeline safety. If these uncertain factors are not well considered, the results of reliability analysis will have greater deviations. In this paper, we made a statistical analysis of material properties of L415, L485 and L555 pipeline girth welds, including girth weld tensile strength, girth weld impact energy and girth weld fracture toughness. Normal distribution, logarithmic normal distribution, exponential distribution, Gumbel distribution and two-parameter Weibull distribution were used to describe the distribution of these parameters and to estimate parameter distributions. Then K-S and χa tests were used for a non-parametric test under the given significant level. Finally, according to test results, the best distributions of parameters were proposed, which is important to improve the accuracy of reliability analysis for girth welds on pipelines.

Key words: girth weld ; reliability ; parameter estimation ; non-parametric test
收稿日期: 2016-11-15     
PACS:    
基金资助:国家科技支撑计划项目(2015BAK16B02)资助
通讯作者: sjclass@126.com
引用本文:   
任伟,帅健. 管道环焊缝可靠性的参数统计分布研究[J]. 石油科学通报, 2016, 1(3): 484-492. REN Wei, SHUAI Jian. Research into the statistical distribution of reliability parameters for girth welds on pipelines. 石油科学通报, 2016, 1(3): 484-492.
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