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首页» 过刊浏览» 2016» Vol. 1» Issue (3) -     DOI : 10.3969/j.issn.2096-1693.2016.03.048
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我国石油企业海外投资项目经济风险分析研究
姜洪殿,董康银,孙仁金,邱坤
中国石油大学(北京) 工商管理学院,北京 102249
Research into economic risk analysis of overseas investment projects of Chinese petroleum enterprises
JIANG Hongdian, DONG Kangyin, SUN Renjin, QIU Kun
School of Business Administration, China University of Petroleum-Beijing, Beijing, 102249, China

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摘要  随着我国石油企业“走出去”程度不断加强,石油企业决策者也面临一系列的风险,做好经济风险分析,是规避损失的有效手段。本文根据海外投资项目特点,选取蒙特卡罗模拟法和决策树分析法作为经济风险分析的主要方法,进而在系统分析海外投资项目经济风险因素的基础上,结合某海外投资项目实例,综合运用蒙特卡罗模拟法和决策树分析法,对经济风险进行定量分析,这两种方法所得结论基本一致,该项目的风险程度属于低风险。最后有针对性的提出应对海外投资项目经济风险的对策建议。
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关键词 : overseas investment project ; economic risk ; Monte Carlo simulation ; decision tree analysis
Abstract

  With the increasing global outlook of Chinese petroleum enterprises, their decision-makers face a series of risks. Economic risk analysis is an effective means of reducing losses. Based on the characteristics of overseas investment projects and system analysis of risk factors, Monte Carlo simulation and decision tree analysis methods are adopted in this paper to evaluate the economic risks for one overseas investment project. The results show that the two methods have almost the same conclusion that the project is low risk. Finally, suggestions are put forward to deal with the economic risks of overseas investment projects.

Key words: 海外投资项目; 经济风险分析; 蒙特卡罗模拟; 决策树
收稿日期: 2016-07-24     
PACS:    
基金资助:国家社会科学基金重大项目“非常规油气开发利用对国家能源安全和社会经济的影响”(13&ZD159)和国家自然科学基金项目“中国天然气安全预警与应急系统研究”(71273277)联合资助
通讯作者: sunrenjin@cup.edu.cn
引用本文:   
姜洪殿,董康银,孙仁金,邱坤. 我国石油企业海外投资项目经济风险分析研究[J]. 石油科学通报, 2016, 1(3): 512-521. JIANG Hongdian, DONG Kangyin, SUN Renjin, QIU Kun. Research into economic risk analysis of overseas investment projects of Chinese petroleum enterprises . 石油科学通报, 2016, 1(3): 512-521.
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